Now, Google can predict which films will be Box Office hits


Here’s good news for producers. They don’t have to wait for the film release to see if their film is a winner or a dud. In a recent study, Google has said that it can predict if a film is going to be a huge Box Office hit or no. The study says it depends on the movie trailer engagement and film search.

In a study called ‘Quantifying Movie Magic with Google Search,’ Google says searches for movie trailers a month prior to a film release help predict opening weekend sales.

The study said: “At four weeks out, trailer search volume on Google coupled with both the franchise status of the movie and seasonality can predict opening weekend box office revenue with 94% accuracy.”

According to Google, the more people searching for a specific movie, the bigger the box-office weekend. The key for box-office success doesn’t only lie in movie searches, but also in search ad click volume.

“In the seven day window prior to a film’s release date, if one film has 250,000 more search queries than a similar film, the film with more queries is likely to perform up to $4.3M better during opening weekend. When looking at search ad click volume, if a film has 20,000 more paid clicks than a similar film, it is expected to bring in up to $7.5M more during opening weekend.”

Not only Google, the study says that YouTube searches are also a strong predictor of opening weekend performance of the films.

According to the study, marketers should be looking at movie title searches on YouTube a month before a movie release, not just the week of because that’s when they’ll “have the highest predictive power.”

More from the study:

Moviegoers look at 13 sources before deciding which movie to see.

48% of moviegoers decide which film to see the day they buy their ticket. From this, marketers should realize they need to have a continued presence after opening weekend, not just beforehand.

When it comes to researching a new movie, 61% of moviegoers state that they turn to online resources.



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